The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves finish their three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. After winning the first two games of the series, the Braves are favored on Sunday with a moneyline of -128, while the Mets have a moneyline of +105. There is also an over/under of 7.5 runs.
After winning the first two games of the series, the Braves have moved ahead of the Mets into first place in the NL East despite the Mets leading the division for most of the season.
With a win on Sunday, the Braves can take a commanding two-game lead with three games to play. Of course, the Mets can pull even again by winning on Sunday and avoiding the sweep.
Sunday’s game will also decide the season series between these teams, with both the Mets and Braves beating each other nine times in 2022.
That means if the Mets win on Sunday, they would have the inside because they would own the tiebreaker with Atlanta. In other words, Sunday’s game is likely to decide what team wins the NL East this year.
The Mets will look to Chris Bassitt in a must-win game. While he’s their starter, Bassitt has perhaps been the team’s most consistent starter this year, going 15-8 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 29 starts. Bassitt also pitched to a 2.93 ERA in September and has helped the Mets to win 10 of his last 11 starts.
Of course, the Mets also need to get their offense going after scoring just four total runs over the first two games of this series. New York’s lineup hasn’t looked the same since losing Starling Marte to an injury, forcing Buck Showalter to mix and match, looking for the right combination.
The good news is that Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Eduardo Escobar, and Francisco Lindor are all hitting over .300 over the past week, so there is hope for the New York lineup to get going.
Charlie Morton will take the mound on Sunday with the hope of leading the Braves to a series sweep. The 38-year-old has made 30 starts this year, going 9-6 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
Despite pitching to a 5.27 ERA in September, the Braves are 4-1 in his last five starts, although the Mets have handed Morton a loss in two of the three games he’s started against them this year.
Offensively, the Braves have found their power stroke in recent days, hitting five home runs over the first two games of this series. Matt Olson and Dansby Swanson have both homered in back-to-back games, helping Atlanta collect 13 homers over the team’s last six games. Plus, over their last seven games, the Braves are averaging 5.9 runs per game.
Backs Against the Wall
With their backs against the wall, the Mets have a pitcher in Bassitt who’s having an excellent season and has stepped up when they needed him, especially down the stretch. Morton, meanwhile, has been a little more uneven and had some trouble with the Mets this year.
With the Mets a slight underdog in this game but having the better starter, betting on New York is the best value in this game.
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