As many expected, the East Division matchup between the No. 2 Washington Capitals and No. 3 Boston Bruins has been a great display of playoff hockey. The Caps took Game 1 in overtime, while the Bruins answered back on Monday with an overtime victory of their own to even up the series.
The series shifts to Boston on Wednesday for Game 3, where the Bruins are now a -174 favorite to win at home and the Caps a +146 road underdog. With that, here is a quick look at how the first two games have played out, who to watch, and a final prediction.
Series Recap
In game 1 in DC, each team scored twice through two periods of action. Washington got started early when right wing Tom Wilson gave the Capitals a 1-0 lead. However, right wing Jake DeBrusk answered the call for the Bruins about seven minutes later, scoring his first goal of the series to even things up at one. Washington regained the lead in the period when defenseman Brendan Dillon scored, only to see the game tied again when left wing Nick Ritchie scored the game’s only power-play goal.
After a back-and-forth third period that was ultimately scoreless, the game went to overtime, the first overtime game of the entire postseason. It wouldn’t last long, though, as center Nic Dowd deflected a shot from TJ Oshie past Tuukka Rask and into the net, giving the Capitals the 3-2 win.
Washington managed to win Game 1 despite their goaltender going down early. Vitek Vanecek made just three saves before suffering an injury on DeBrusk’s goal, forcing Craig Anderson to step in and play the rest of the game. The 39-year old Anderson stopped all but one of the 22 shots he faced, earning the second star for the game behind Dowd.
For Game 2, the teams traded goals again, each scoring twice just in the first period. DeBrusk got things started with his second goal of the playoffs about five minutes in, only for Oshie to score the equalizer on the power play about 90 seconds later. Three minutes or so after Oshie, center Patrice Bergeron put the Bruins back on top before right wing Garnet Hathaway scored for the Caps.
Fast-forward to the third period, the 2-2 tie was broken when Hathaway scored his second goal of the day. But with time running down, left wing Taylor Hall scored a clutch goal for Boston in a scrum by the net, tying the game at 3-3 and leading to another overtime. And Boston used that momentum from Hall to win the game just 39 seconds into OT, as left wing Brad Marchand fired a shot from the slot past Anderson.
There were a ton of shots and a ton of penalty minutes in Game 2. Boston put up 48 shots on Anderson, forcing the vet to make 44 saves, while Rask stopped 36 of the 39 shots he faced. There were also a total of 28 combined penalty minutes, nearly all of which coming in the first two periods.
Who to Watch
Each team has a key goal-scorer waiting to get on the board. For Washington, it’s left wing Alex Ovechkin, who has two assists but is still looking for his first goal of the series. For Boston, right wing David Pastrnak also has a pair of helpers but is still in search of a goal.
There’s also a question of who gets the nod in net for Washington. While Anderson has held his own in both games, it appears Vanacek avoided serious injury on Saturday and may be able to start Game 3. There’s also the wild card Ilya Samsonov, who is now off the COVID list and making the trip to Boston for Game 3.
Key Stat
In this competitive series where both games needed extra time to decide, there is a stat that shows a clear advantage for one team. Through two games, the Bruins have had 25 high-danger scoring chances at even-strength, giving them a whopping 2.85 expected goals at five vs. five per game. For comparison, the Capitals have totaled just 12 high-danger chances, with an expected goal rate of 1.59 at even strength.
This more or less shows that the Bruins have been the vastly superior team at even strength throughout the first two games. With just two high-danger goals out of those 25 chances, perhaps some positive regression will take place when the series shifts to their home arena.
Betting Pick
For Game 3, I’m backing the Bruins to take a 2-1 series lead. Between Washington’s uncertainty in net, as well as Boston’s flurry of shots in Game 2 and their number of high-danger chances, the B’s appear to have an edge on home ice.
Expect Washington to keep it close, which keeps me away from the Bruins -1.5. But the moneyline for the Bruins is the pick for Wednesday night’s showdown.
Pick: Bruins -174
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