After a week off from the best fight company in the world, the UFC is back this weekend with an event taking place at the UFC APEX on Saturday night. Headlining this event, lightweights Grant Dawson and Bobby Green are set to meet in the octagon.
Dawson is the #10 ranked lightweight contender, but he is fighting out of the ranking on Saturday against a longtime UFC veteran with over 45 career fights. Both are coming off big wins with a lot of momentum for what should be a great fight for fans to enjoy.
Let’s break down this matchup and come up with the best betting pick to make on it. Betting on the UFC has proven to be the toughest thing to do in the sports betting industry, but we have the process down to turn it into a profitable hobby on the weekends.
Grant Dawson – Biggest Test Yet?
Dawson might have had a bigger test on paper in his last bout against the very talented Damir Ismagulov, being the betting underdog, but he proved to be a legit contender in this stacked lightweight division.
This next test is bigger but in a different way. Dawson is headlining his first event in the UFC; which means a harder training camp, more media obligations, and brighter lights on fight night. Green has been here before and has been a fan-favorite for years. Will Dawson show up when he needs to?
On the technical side, Dawson has the tools to beat just about anybody in the world right now–it’s no secret. He has endless cardio, elite grappling, and the knack to find someone’s neck on the ground.
Bobby Green – Who’s The Real Winner?
Green might be the most dangerous version of himself this weekend against a highly-touted contender. Think about it: Green is getting a nice payday, all the media attention he desires, and a free opportunity to jump into the top 10 of a stacked division.
He can be free and loose and have fun fighting his fight, and it doesn’t look like he can lose in this situation. If he loses, he was supposed to. If he wins, he gets headlines all week and will be in a massive fight the next time he steps foot in the octagon. At his age, that’s all Green needs for motivation to give the title one last run.
The unorthodox style of Green is going to cause some big problems for Dawson. If Green can stuff early takedowns and get into the flow on the feet, he’s going to win some rounds on the scorecards with his jab alone.
Dawson vs. Green Pick and Prediction
After going back and forth on the pick for this main event bout, let’s go with a massive upset. Bobby Green is going to get his hand raised after an outstanding performance on Saturday night–assuming he will be healthy and prepared for 25 minutes.
Green is in a great spot to go out and leave it all in the octagon. The smaller cage in the APEX is going to be a big advantage for Dawson, so this pick is a long shot. The odds are too good to pass up, even though the smart bet is with Dawson. Since Dawson is going to close at around -450, it’s not worth betting on if you don’t see it another way.
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