Kansas looks for a series split over the course of three days when it hosts the return trip to Phog Allen Fieldhouse against TCU at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday. TCU won 74-64 in Tuesday’s meeting in Fort Worth, easily the biggest win in Jamie Dixon’s tenure with the Horned Frogs, and perhaps in program history.
TCU (19-9, 8-8 Big 12) held Kansas to 22-for-59 (37%) shooting and limited National Player of the Year candidate Ochai Agbaji to 13 points on 4-of-17 shooting. He was one of four Jayhawks in double figures. Though Kansas (23-6, 12-4) still has an opportunity to share the Big 12 regular-season title with Baylor, it plays TCU and Texas, both of whom they’ve lost to.
In Tuesday’s meeting, the Horned Frogs didn’t shoot it particularly well, connecting on 3-of-15 3-pointers. Mike Miles made both of his 3-point attempts en route to a game-high 19 points.
Kansas is favored by 10.5 with an over/under of 144 at lines’ opening. The only movement so far is the over/under has dipped to 143.5 as of this writing.
Kansas is vulnerable
The Jayhawks have the 25th best offense in the country and score 79.1 points per game. But Tuesday showed why they are beatable.
If Agbaji is held in check and the offense sputters, Kansas doesn’t have the defense to fall back on. Additionally, Kansas is average at the free-throw line, converting 70.8% of attempts as a team.
In fact, the defensive unit ranks 177th, allowing teams to score 68.8 points per contest. Though what Kansas hangs its hat on is limiting 3-point opportunities. The Jayhawks are 20th nationally and force teams to convert 29.6% of 3-point attempts.
But still, there is a lot to like, and it starts with the guard tandem of Agbaji and Christian Braun. They are 6-foot-6 and 6-5, respectively, and lead the team in scoring. Agbaji averages 20.1 points per game, and Braun adds 15.1 points.
Kansas’ lone home loss was 80-62 to Kentucky.
TCU’s defensive prowess
TCU won the contrasting styles battle on Tuesday. Dixon’s team is 46th nationally in defense, allowing 64.4 points per game.
TCU is 19th in rebounding, grabbing 36.1 per game. They showed that by outrebounding Kansas by ten on Tuesday.
It’ll have to be a blueprint replicated as TCU is not strong offensively, ranking 246th nationally, scoring 68.6 points per game. The Horned Frogs are one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 30% from 3-point range, 331st nationally.
Miles and Damion Baugh lead the offense. Miles averages 15.4 points and 4.1 assists per game, while Baugh adds 10.4 points and 4.2 assists per contest.
Betting Prediction
TCU is a strong 16-9-3 against the spread and 14-12-2 on over/unders. It is 4-4 on the road. Kansas, meanwhile, is 13-15-1 against the spread and 17-12 on over/unders.
So far this season, Kansas is 4-1 coming off a loss with the largest victory margin of 13 points against Iona in such contests. The against the spread record indicates Kansas plays its opponents closer than it should.
The Jayhawks led at the half by one on Tuesday, and if they get out to a fast start, it’ll be trouble for TCU. But 10.5 is a large line to not go with the underdogs given Kansas’ issues this season.
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