Tuesday’s MLB schedule includes a game between one of the best teams in the National League and one of the worst as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Cincinnati Reds. On the road, the Dodgers are heavy favorites with a -200 moneyline compared to Cincinnati’s moneyline of +170. The game also has an over/under of 9.5 runs.
While the Dodgers remain atop the NL West, they have lost some ground in June. They have lost five of their last eight games and have been swept twice in the last month, including a sweep at the hands of the lowly Pirates. That actually leaves Los Angeles tied with the Padres for first place, although the Dodgers have a slight edge in winning percentage.
The Reds, on the other hand, are at the bottom of the NL Central standings. They got swept by the Brewers over the weekend, giving them four straight losses. With a 6-12 record in June, the Reds are now 21 games under .500, as only the Nationals and A’s have a lower winning percentage than Cincinnati.
Tyler Mahle will get his 15th start of the season for the Reds on Tuesday. While he’s consistently taken the ball every fifth day, the righty is just 2-5 with a 4.46 ERA this season. However, he appears to have turned a corner lately, pitching a three-hit shutout in his last start and giving up just one run on eight hits over his last 15 innings, striking out 22 batters during that time.
Remarkably, the Cincinnati lineup hasn’t completely disappeared during the team’s recent losing streak. The Reds have scored at least four runs in six of their last eight games despite missing some players on the IL. Unfortunately, key figures like Brandon Drury, Jonathan India, and Nick Senzel have gone cold lately, although Mike Moustakas and Tommy Pham are trending in the right direction.
Tuesday will be Tony Gonsolin’s turn to start for Los Angeles. He’s been the team’s best starter to this point, going 8-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his first 12 starts of 2022. Gonsolin has pitched at least six innings in six consecutive starts, allowing just six total runs during that stretch, so he always finds a way to limit the damage.
Of course, the LA lineup isn’t exactly clicking on all cylinders right now, averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last eight games. The Dodgers have also lost Mookie Betts to the IL, depriving them of their best hitter. Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman have both posted an OPS over 1.000 over the team’s last five games, although production from the rest of the lineup has been sparse at times.
The safest bet in this game might be under 9.5 total runs. Neither team is in good shape offensively right now, while both starting pitchers have been excellent lately. While the Dodgers have won seven of the last eight games Gonsolin has started, they don’t necessarily have much value given their sluggish offense and Betts being out. With Mahle in a good groove, the Reds have some value for bettors looking to take a chance.
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