The New York Mets have their back against the wall in Game 2 of the Wild Card Round after losing Game 1 on Friday 7-1 to the San Diego Padres. The Padres took the lead in the first inning and never looked back.
Nevertheless, the Mets are a -178 favorite to win on Saturday night, with San Diego’s moneyline set at +144 and the over/under set at six runs.
The Padres put on a power display in multiple ways in Friday’s series opener. San Diego hit four home runs in the game, all off of Max Scherzer.
Meanwhile, Yu Darvish put on an impressive performance on the mound, pitching seven strong innings to help hold the Mets to one run on seven hits over nine innings.
Time to deGrominate
There’s no question that the Mets need Jacob deGrom to pitch like someone who owns multiple Cy Young awards in Game 2. In just 11 starts during the regular season, deGrom went 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP, striking out 102 batters in 64.1 innings.
However, deGrom also lost three of his last four starts during the regular season, giving up at least three runs in each start, and has looked vulnerable to the long ball this year.
The San Diego lineup deGrom will face on Saturday is surely feeling confident after a great performance in Game 1. Including Saturday’s game, the Padres have now scored at least five runs in four of their last six games. However, the Padres have also been held to just one run four times in their last nine games, so they’ve been frustratingly inconsistent late in the season.
Outside of Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim, nobody in the San Diego lineup ended the regular season on a hot streak. Likewise, nobody in San Diego’s lineup has particularly good career numbers against deGrom.
The only exception might be Machado, who is 6 for 20 (.300) against deGrom but with no extra-base hits, while Josh Bell, Jake Cronenworth, and Jurickson Profar are a combined 1 for 16 against New York’s ace.
Don’t Sell Snell
The Padres will look to lefty Blake Snell to help them close out the Wild Card Series in two games. He made 24 starts for the Padres this season, going 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
But Snell was much better during the second half of the season, posting a 2.17 ERA in September and helping the Padres win three of his last four starts.
Snell faced the Mets twice this season with mixed results. He allowed four earned runs in four innings when the Mets visited San Diego in June, although during a visit to Citi Field in July, Snell tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just four hits. Snell has also dominated the likes of Francisco Lindor and Eduardo Escobar, who are a combined 5 for 37 (.135) against him.
Of course, the Mets had scored 21 runs in their three games heading into the postseason before being dominated by Darvish on Friday. The likes of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and batting champ Jeff McNeil were all red-hot during the final week of the regular season.
Plus, the right-handed trio of Canha, Pete Alonso, and Starling Marte is a combined 12 for 35 (.343) against Snell with five extra-base hits.
Redemption Song
The Mets were the best team in baseball this season when coming off a loss, going 43-18 (.705) following a loss. With deGrom pitching a must-win game and several New York hitters having past success against Snell, this series isn’t over. Look for the Mets to bounce back on Saturday and force a Game 3 on Sunday.
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