Saint Mary’s and UCLA meet in Portland, Oregon at 7:40 p.m. ET on Saturday for a Sweet Sixteen berth and the right to play either Baylor or North Carolina.
The Gaels (26-7) cruised past a tired Indiana team in the first round. The Bruins (26-7) had a struggle with Akron, pulling out a 57-53 win.
UCLA struggled shooting and was outrebounded by the Zips, who led late into the game. The Bruins shot 35% from the floor and 36% on 3-pointers. But their veteran guards handled the game as Tyger Campbell, and Johnny Juzang handled the game late.
The line opened at UCLA -2.5 with an over/under of 127. The line has since moved to UCLA -3 with an over/under of 126.5 as of this writing.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: Play like a Final Four team
UCLA is trying to go to back-to-back Final Fours, but the Bruins won’t sneak up on teams like they did as an 11-seed a season ago. They’ve been in a lot of close games and have experienced guards.
Juzang is a likely NBA Draft pick and averages 16.7 points per game. Jaime Jacquez Jr. averages 13.3 points per game. Jules Bernard is at 12.7 points per game. Campbell is at 11.7 points and 4.3 assists per game.
The Bruins are 51st in scoring at 76.7 points per game and top-125 in terms of efficiency, converting at rates of 44.9% from the field and 35.2% on 3-pointers, which ranks 124th and 102nd in the country, respectively.
UCLA hangs its hat on defense, allowing 64.3 points per game, 45th in the country, and top-100 in efficiency. It forces teams 41.4% from the field and 31.9% on 3-pointers, which rank 70th and 95th, respectively.
Saint Mary’s Betting Preview: Stop, score, stop
The Gaels are one of the best teams in the country defensively, holding teams to 59.4 points per game, the eighth-best mark in the country. But it has more to do with pace and perhaps strength of schedule. Saint Mary’s is 119th in opponent field goal percentage and 178th in 3-point percentage. They hold teams to 27.0 rebounds per game, the 19th best rate nationally.
The Gaels, who have a win over Gonzaga this season, are 66th in efficiency at 46.2% from the field. They are also 39th in free throw shooting at 75.7%, so getting to the free-throw line is another key.
Saint Mary’s has four players average double figures but none more than 12.5 points per game, who is 6-foot-10 Matthias Tass.
Betting Prediction
Saint Mary’s is 20-12-1 against the spread and 16-15-1 on over/unders. The Gaels are 6-5 on the road and 4-2 on a neutral court.
UCLA is 17-15-1 against the spread and 16-17 on over/unders. The Bruins are 8-4 in true road games and also 4-2 on a neutral court.
This should be a defensive battle. The team who secures more possessions should win, and with UCLA having Final Four experience and veteran guards, they should win and cover 3 points.
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