Pirates vs Mets Betting Preview

Pirates vs Mets Betting Preview

With the all-star break just a few days away, the first-place New York Mets are set to begin a four-game series with the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday night. Naturally, the Mets are home favorites with a moneyline of -180 compared to Pittsburgh’s moneyline of +160. The game also has an over/under of 7.5 runs.

The Mets aren’t exactly playing their best baseball right now, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. June 16 was the last time they won more than two games in a row, so it’s been a while since they put together even a mini-streak. That being said, they hold a four-game lead atop the NL East ahead of seven straight games with the Pirates to bookend the all-star break.

Of course, the Pirates haven’t been much better despite a three-game winning streak earlier this week. That streak ended with a 14-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday and was preceded by a six-game losing streak. That leaves them 22 games under .500 and 19 games out of first place as we head toward the midway point of the season.

Baker Man

JT Brubaker is in line to get the start for Pittsburgh on Thursday. He’s arguably been the team’s best starter this year, although for the Pirates, that means going 4-8 with a 4.09 ERA over 15 starts. Nevertheless, he’s been consistent and always seems to give the Pirates a chance to win, owning a 1.14 WHIP with opposing hitters batting .241 against him.

On Thursday, Brubaker will face a New York offense that’s prone to poor offensive performances, managing just 10 total runs in their last four games. The Mets have been shut out five times since the start of June and continue to sit at the bottom of the National League in runs scored. Brandon Nimmo has provided a spark in the leadoff spot since returning from the IL, while Dominic Smith has also started to heat up, although the Mets are still struggling to find consistency from their big bats.

Walk the Walk

Of course, the Mets sit in first place primarily because of their pitching, including Taijuan Walker, who starts on Thursday. In his 15 starts this season, Walker is 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA, making him a surprise exclusion from the All-Star Team. Walker has been even more unhittable at home, posting a 1.52 ERA over his seven starts at Citi Field.

Meanwhile, the Pirates also have one of the weakest offenses in baseball. They’ve been held to two runs or less seven times in their last 10 games, a stretch that includes three games at Coors Field, a place where everybody hits. The Pittsburgh lineup has been carried all season by Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds, although Reynolds is currently slumping with Ben Gamel getting red-hot to help fill the void.

That Simple

Baseball betting isn’t always as simple as choosing a first-place team to beat a last-place team, but in this case, it is that simple. Given Walker’s performance at home this year, he’s poised to dominate the Pittsburgh lineup. Meanwhile, the New York Mets have shown just enough offense lately to squeeze out a few runs and get a win on Thursday.


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