Both Rutgers and Notre Dame had to be relieved when they saw they were in the NCAA Tournament. It’s weird that the ACC’s second-best team during the regular season is in the play-in round, but the Fighting Irish (22-10) were just 4-9 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
They beat up on lesser competition. They did have a strong NET and strength of record compared to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights (18-13) were 70 in the NET but had a 9-10 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
The winner of Wednesday’s game, which tips off at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET in Dayton, Ohio, will advance to play Alabama as the 11 seed in the West region.
The line opened at Rutgers -1 with an over/under of 132, but it has since swung the other direction to Notre Dame -1 with an over/under of 131.5 as of this writing.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview: Two-man game
The guard tandem of Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker has been Rutgers’ bread and butter. They each are scoring in double figures and make for a difficult backcourt.
Harper, a 6-foot-6 guard, averages 15.7 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Baker is averaging 12.0 points and 3.9 assists per game.
The Scarlet Knights are one of the top defenses and certainly have an edge on Notre Dame. Rutgers is 62nd in defensive scoring (65.2 points allowed per game) and 62nd in defensive field goal percentage (41.2%).
Clifford Omoruyi, the 6-11 center, does a strong job at protecting the paint. He pulls in 7.9 rebounds and blocks 1.3 shots per game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Offensive efficiency
Notre Dame is 147th in scoring at 72.3 points per game but are top-75 in efficiency and even better at 3-point shooting. The Irish’s 46.0% conversion rate from the field is 72nd, and their 38.0% 3-point percentage is 18th nationally. Defensively they are also top-100 at 91st.
South Bend native Blake Wesley, a 6-foot-5 true freshman guard, has grabbed national attention. He’s averaging 14.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.
Veteran Dane Goodwin is second at 14.0 points per game. Then they have the rebounding tandem of Paul Atkinson Jr. and Nate Laszewski, who average 7.1 and 6.5 rebounds, respectively.
Betting Prediction
Notre Dame was the second-best team in the ACC during the regular season but had an early exit in the tournament, so the Fighting Irish should be rested. Similarly, Rutgers lost its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, so it should also be rested.
The Fighting Irish are 16-15 against the spread and 16-13-2 on over/unders this season. They were 7-5 in true road games but 1-4 in neutral court settings.
Still, they are ahead of Rutgers, which was 13-16-2 against the spread and 16-15 on over/unders. It was 4-9 in true road games and lost its only neutral court game.
It’s a hard game to pick due to the line movement, and it figures to be a rock fight. We’re riding with Notre Dame’s efficiency to cover -1.
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