Win or go home begins Tuesday with the First Four in Dayton. Indiana and Wyoming meet at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET in the second game of the 68-team March Madness tournament.
The Hoosiers (20-13) snuck into the tournament by securing their bid with a win over fellow bubble team Michigan and top-seeded Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.
Wyoming (25-8) had a decent non-conference schedule with a win at Washington and over Missouri Valley Conference regular-season champion Northern Iowa but still had to sweat out the bubble after losing to eventual Mountain West Conference Tournament champion Boise State.
The line opened at Indiana -4 with an over/under of 132, which has moved to 133 as of this writing.
Wyoming Cowboys Betting Preview: Win the paint
These two teams are similarly matched, but Wyoming is going to have to do a good job defensively on keeping Trayce Jackson-Davis away from post touches. The Cowboys have the 75th ranked defense, allowing 65.7 points per game, and are 52nd in defensive 3-point percentage, forcing teams to convert at a 30.9% rate. Teams have had a little easier time scoring inside against Wyoming.
The Cowboys have the personnel to do it. Their top two scorers are 6-foot-9 Graham Ike, who leads the team with 19.9 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, and 6-7 wing Hunter Maldonado, who averages 18.7 points, a team-best 6.4 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Wyoming is used to running its starters the entire game with three guys playing at least 31 minutes. How the game is officiated could be key as they need to avoid foul trouble.
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Play inside out
Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson are a force on the inside and will be key for the Indiana offense. They are the top two scorers and rebounders at 17.4 points and 8.2 rebounds, and 11.8 points and 7.7 rebounds, respectively. The 6-9 Jackson-Davis is the son of former NBA post player Dale Davis.
They can open up the floor for Indiana’s shooters. As a team, they are 195th and convert 3-pointers at a 33.7% rate. They must first win the paint and allow for kick out opportunities offensively. Xavier Johnson, Parker Stewart, and forward Miller Kopp are all guys to watch who shoot at least 37% on 3s.
Johnson particularly has been strong, developing as a point guard of late. In the three Big Ten Tournament games, he averaged 16.7 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Well above his season averages of 11.8 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game.
Wyoming was better on the road, going 8-5 in true road games versus Indiana’s 3-8. Both teams are strong defensively, ranking 75th and 69th, respectively.
The Hoosiers are 19-14 against the spread and 16-17 on over/unders this season. Wyoming is 17-13-2 against the spread and 14-17-1 on over/unders.
Indiana played strong to close the Big Ten Tournament and had higher-level competition, but Wyoming is no pushover. Four is a lot of points to lay, so we’ll go Wyoming +4.
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