Duke and North Carolina meet in a historic meeting at 6:00 p.m. ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. It will be the final time Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski coaches on the Blue Devils’ home court.
The Hall of Fame coach took over the Duke program in 1980 and won five national championships, and compiled an all-time record of 1,196-365.
It’s hard to imagine Duke will lose this game, especially as double-digit favorites. The Blue Devils (26-4, 16-3 Atlantic Coast Conference) lead the ACC with archrival North Carolina (22-8, 14-5) right behind them. Some bracketologists think the Tar Heels are on the bubble, and an upset on Coach K night would certainly help their cause.
The line opened at Duke -11.5 with an over/under of 153.5, where the lines stick as of this writing.
Duke must get stops
Duke won the first meeting a month ago, 87-67, by getting stops defensively. They have the 58th best defense in the country, allowing 65.1 points per game. They force teams to shoot 41% from the field (54th) and 29.9% on 3-pointers (26th).
Duke has a complete roster and is led by likely lottery pick Paolo Banchero. The 6-foot-10 wing is averaging team-bests in points (16.9 per game) and rebounds (7.8 per game).
Rangy wing Wendell Moore Jr. is also key on both ends. He averages 13.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and a team-best 4.6 assists per game.
The Blue Devils are 15-2 at home this season and are on a seven-game winning streak, though that last loss was to Virginia by one at home.
Tar Heels’ clean game?
North Carolina does not have a deep rotation, typically playing seven players, so they will need to stay out of foul trouble. Though in the previous meeting, coach Hubert Davis elected to play ten guys, though the five starters all played 30-plus minutes.
They play with great pace, scoring 78.1 points per game, 31st in the country. They shoot it well, including 37.4% on 3-pointers, which is 30th in the country.
Brady Manek scored 21 points in the first meeting, and he’s the team’s third-leading scorer at 14.2 points per game. Armando Bacot, a 6-10 center, is having a great season averaging a double-double and team-bests of 16.4 points and 12.7 rebounds per game.
Caleb Love has come off the bench recently and is averaging 15.5 points and a team-best 3.7 assists per game.
Betting Prediction
This is one of the higher over/unders on the slate. In addition to North Carolina’s stout offense, Duke is even better at 10th (80.3 points per game) in scoring, 11th in field goal percentage (48.9%), and 23rd in 3-point shooting (37.7%). There will be points to be had, even in a blowout.
Duke is 17-11-2 against the spread and 15-14-1 on over/unders. North Carolina is 14-15-1 against the spread and 18-11-1 on over/unders.
The Tar Heels are 7-3 in true road games, but this isn’t your typical road game. A sold-out Cameron Indoor to send off a Hall of Fame coach is going to be as tough a game as any team can face. The lack of depth in a potential up-and-down game is somewhat concerning for North Carolina.
Duke should win this game and cover the 11.5-point spread.
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