This week’s game between the no. 7 Michigan State Spartans and the no. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes could be the de-facto Big Ten Championship Game. The winner will be in the driver’s seat to win the Big Ten East Division and end up in the College Football Playoff if they can keep winning. At home, the Buckeyes are currently listed as 19-point favorites, with the over/under set at 68.5 points.
Ohio State has been on a roll since a September loss to Oregon. They have survived tough games with Penn State, Nebraska, and Purdue to get to 9-1. However, Ryan Day’s team still has no margin for error with Michigan State, Michigan, and the Big Ten title game standing between them and the CFP.
As for the Spartans, a loss to Purdue is the only blemish on their record thus far. Michigan State hasn’t been able to blow out as many teams as Ohio State, but the Spartans have the same path to the CFP. Wins over Ohio State, Penn State, and in the Big Ten Championship Game would send Michigan State back to the CFP.
Walk the Walker
Michigan State’s season has largely revolved around running back Kenneth Walker, who is the nation’s second-leading rusher. He has led the way all season, helping to make things much easier for quarterback Payton Thorne, who has also surpassed expectations with 21 touchdown passes while averaging over nine yards per pass. The Spartans have two big-play wide receivers in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor, so opposing defenses can’t focus all of their efforts on stopping Walker.
Of course, the MSU defense has also been a huge part of the team’s success. For the most part, the team’s M.O. from past seasons with regard to being stout against the run has held true again. However, there have been a few teams that found success throwing the ball against the Spartans, which was Michigan State’s downfall in the loss to Purdue.
Blowing the Roof Off
When things are clicking, few offenses are explosive as the Ohio State offense, as the Buckeyes are averaging better than 46 points per game. At times, they’ve struggled to put teams away once they get into the red zone. But the combination of 1,000-yard rusher TreVeyon Henderson and the receiving trio of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, and Garrett Williams is tough to contain for 60 minutes.
At the same time, the Buckeyes also have game-changers on defense, especially on the defensive line. Much like Michigan State, teams have had trouble all year running the ball consistently against the Ohio State defense. However, the Buckeyes are also similar to Michigan State in the sense that they can give up yards through the air against quality quarterbacks because they lack a dominant edge rusher.
Keeping It Close
As 19-point underdogs, the Spartans aren’t being given much of a chance in this game. However, they have an elite running back, they have the receivers who can make plays down the field, and they have a defense that can at least slow down the run.
While the Buckeyes are the better team overall, bet on Michigan State to make things interesting and beat the 19-point spread.
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