The Iowa Hawkeyes will look to take advantage of a “two birds, one stone” opportunity on Thursday when they host the Iowa State Cyclones. Fran McCaffery’s team can knock off one of their biggest rivals while also padding their tournament resume’ in one fell swoop. The game is scheduled for an 8:00 PM EST tip-off from Hawkeye Arena and will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1. Iowa is a (-6.5) home favorite, with the total currently set at 141.5 points.
The Hawkeyes are coming off of their second defeat of the season at the hands of a Duke team that is now running at nearly full speed after some offseason injuries. Iowa shot just 3-16 from behind the arc, which led to a points per possession number of only 0.91, which doesn’t typically get it done against the Blue Devils.
Iowa State enters the game as the 20th-ranked team in the nation with 7-1 mark on the season. The Cyclones have defeated North Dakota and St. Johns in their last two games, both of which came at home and by double-digit margins. The matchup with Iowa represents the first time that T.J. Otzelberger’s club has played in a true road this season.
Iowa State Cyclones Overview
Despite massive offensive production lost during the offseason, the Cyclones have been successful this season due to some key transfers. Former St. Bonaventure stars Jaren Holmes, and Osun Osunniyi have maintained a high level of production despite “transferring up” and currently rank first and third on the team in scoring. Holmes also leads the team in three-point shooting and second in assists. Osunniyi is not a big-time shot blocker but does lead the team in blocked shots as well as free throw percentage.
Iowa State ranks as one of the best defensive units in the entire nation this season. They rank 9th in the nation in defensive points per game at 56.8 while ranking first in the nation in opponents turnover percentage. The Cyclones have gone under the total in seven of their eight games this season by a Big XII-leading -6.3 points per contest.
Iowa Hawkeyes Overview
Despite the loss of Keegan Murray to the NBA, Iowa has maintained their high-scoring ways. In fact, they are actually averaging MORE points per game this season, albeit by a razor-thin margin. Much of the credit is due to the development of Keegan’s brother, junior forward Kris Murray who has more than doubled his production. Murray has seen his average scoring increase by almost 10 points per game this season, while his rebounding has increased by nearly 2.5x.
Aside from Murray, Coach McCaffery boasts seven other players averaging at least five points per game and 13 minutes per contest. Their 83.4 points per game currently ranks 21st in the nation and is a byproduct of their ability to take care of the basketball. The Hawkeyes are the best team in the nation in turnover percentage at just 12.6 percent. Despite their high-scoring ways, they have gone under the expected total in five of their eight contests this season.
Pick and Prediction
Despite Iowa’s high-scoring tendencies, the under is the wager here. The Cyclones defense will likely travel, and they will be very deliberate in their offense and try to limit the Iowa possessions. Iowa State will cover the number and Iowa will win the game.
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