A pair of teams who have stayed true to themselves will play for the South Regional title. Second-seeded Villanova and fifth-seeded Houston will meet at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday in San Antonio for a spot in the Final Four in New Orleans.
Houston (32-5) has won all six of its postseason games, including avenging a regular-season finale loss to Memphis for the conference championship. The Cougars have held Memphis and Illinois to 53 points and Arizona to 60 points. Their trademark defense has carried them.
Villanova (29-7) has won eight straight games and is holding teams to 58.2 points per game in six postseason games.
The line opened at Houston -2.5 with an over/under of 127. The line has since moved to Houston -3 with an over/under of 128.
Villanova Wildcats Betting Preview: Get to the foul line
If one thing will separate these two defensive teams, it will be Villanova getting to the free-throw line. They’re the best team in college basketball, converting 82.5% of free throws. It also means they are clutch in late-game situations.
The Wildcats are 36th defensively, holding teams to 63.6 points per game. Teams are shooting 41.0% against them, which ranks 54th. Teams are converting 31.9% of 3-pointers, which is 98th in the country.
Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore were the top two scorers during the regular season, but Jermaine Samuels has stepped up to become the leading scorer at 14.5 points per game in six tournament games.
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Strong on each end
Houston is stout on both ends, especially on the defensive end. The Cougars are seventh in allowing 58.9 points per game on the season and the most efficient defense, forcing teams to convert 37.2% of field goal attempts. Teams convert just 29.6% of 3-point attempts, ranking 19th nationally.
Offensively, the Cougars are 60th, scoring 75.9 points per game and convert 46.7% of attempts, ranking 46th nationally. Their rebounding rate is 36.7 per game, which is 15th in the country.
What they’ve done is remarkable after losing leading scorer Marcus Sasser and Kiyron Powell, two of their top players. Through six games, five Cougars are scoring in double figures, led by Kyler Edwards, who is scoring 16.5 points per game.
Betting Prediction
Houston is 25-12 against the spread and 15-20-2 on over/unders this season. They have covered all six postseason games and are 2-4 on over/unders. Villanova is 19-16-1 against the spread and 17-19 on over/unders this season. The Wildcats are 4-2 against the spread and 1-5 on over/unders in the postseason.
Two defensive teams getting after it will make for a rock fight. The key for Villanova is to limit turnovers, secure defensive rebounds, and get back in transition defense. Meanwhile, Houston will take advantage of every live-ball miscue as it can, despite having limited depth.
The Cougars are a five seed but favored for a reason, and they should win and cover three points in front of a pro-Cougars crowd.
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