Rain has pushed the World Series back a day, with Game 3 on Tuesday and Game 4 on Wednesday. Following a pivotal Game 3, there will be more direction about where the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies may be heading.
The Phillies are home underdogs in Game 4 at +105 to Houston’s -125. The first pitch will be at 8:03 p.m. ET Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. It’s somewhat surprising given the pitching matchup: Houston will start Cristian Javier against Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola.
The Astros have been favored in all three games of the series, and the teams split the first two. Wednesday’s over/under is 7.5 runs, which is a dip from Game 3’s eight runs but above the first two games. The run lines are Astros -1.5 (+135) and Phillies +1.5 (-155).
Houston Astros seek early run
One of the best ways to gain an advantage on the road is to score first. Nola is a pitcher who gets better as the game goes along, and he gets in a rhythm. Scoring early would not only give the Astros the lead but quiet a raucous crowd who is enjoying their first postseason in 11 years and first World Series since 2009.
But the pitching will be just as key. The Astros ranked second defensively during the regular season, allowing 3.23 runs per game, an opposing batting average of .212, and had the fourth-best strikeout rate of 9.49 per game.
Their .613 OPS allowed was the best in MLB. Offensively, the Astros were ninth at 4.59 runs per game.
Philadelphia Phillies look to keep home field
Nola gives the Phillies their best opportunity to win aside from Zack Wheeler. Nola can get deep into the game if he’s rolling and shorten the outs needed from a bullpen that has been suspect at times but strong in the postseason.
The Phillies ranked 16th defensively, allowing 4.32 runs per game in the regular season, and seventh offensively at 4.71 runs per game. The home run power is necessary to tap into, as Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have done time and again in the playoffs. They have their short porch in right field to take advantage of.
Astros/Phillies Betting Prediction
Stealing Game 1 in Houston is the advantage the Phillies needed and look to capitalize on. History shows the Phillies are 9-2 against the Astros in the last 11 meetings at Citizens Bank Park.
However, Nola will be pitching on four days’ rest. He is 35-38 with a 4.26 ERA in 94 starts on four days’ rest, allowing a .316 batting average on balls in play and a .695 OPS.
Javier has not pitched since Oct. 22 and has been very good on extended rest. In 10 starts with six-plus days of rest, Javier is 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA and allows a .225 batting average on balls in play and .525 OPS.
The Astros are favored here, and the data shows why they should be. We’ll take Astros -125.
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