The highlight of the Divisional Round is undoubtedly Sunday’s primetime game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. This game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, although the Bills won at Arrowhead Stadium 38-20 earlier this season. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are 1.5-point home favorites, with the over/under listed at 54 points.
The Bills were arguably the most impressive team last weekend, crushing the Patriots 47-17. They have now won five straight games after a rocky period in the middle of the season and appear to be playing close to their potential. Of course, they now have to go on the road, where they were 5-3 during the regular season.
The Chiefs also had a relatively easy game during Wild Card Weekend, doubling the Steelers 42-21. They’ve now won 10 of their 11 games down the stretch and also appear to be playing up to their potential. Kansas City also has the benefit of staying at home this week and has won five straight playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium.
Coming Together
The Kansas City offense surely seems to be clicking at the right time, with the Chiefs averaging 36.5 points per game over their last six games. The two turnovers from Patrick Mahomes last week create a little bit of a dark cloud given some of his turnover issues earlier in the season. But Mahomes also has 15 touchdown passes in his last five games while the Chiefs are finding ways to manufacture a functional rushing attack.
Naturally, the biggest questions about the Chiefs are on defense, with Kansas City giving up 23.4 points per game over the last five games. There have been some issues on that side of the ball when the Chiefs have played some of the better offensive teams in the league. But Kansas City does have the personnel to get after the quarterback and make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks when playing with a lead.
The Real Josh Allen?
The Bills can only hope that the version of Josh Allen, who completed 21 of 25 passes for 308 yards and five touchdowns, is the version they’ll get moving forward. There have been games when he’s struggled and needed to rely more on his legs than his arm, which is far from ideal. On the bright side, Buffalo’s running game outside of Allen is finally coming alive, with Devin Singletary rushing for over 80 yards in four of his last five games.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills continued to play last week like the team that gave up the fewest points during the regular season. In their last eight games, only Tom Brady and the Patriots have managed more than 21 points against Buffalo. The Bills have what might be the most underrated but rock-solid front-seven in the league and a pair of safeties that are also underrated and capable of creating takeaways.
Rematch!
Winning at Arrowhead in October is a little different from winning there in January. However, the Bills will be confident that they can win there again and might be the more complete team. If Allen can play anywhere near his best, the rest of the Buffalo roster can make up the difference between him and Mahomes and give the Bills a road playoff win.
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