A new month in MLB gets underway on Monday with a matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros. The Astros are home favorites with a moneyline of -190 compared to Boston’s moneyline of +160. Monday’s series opener also has an over/under of eight runs.
The Red Sox will be glad to see the month of July end, as Boston went 1-6 heading into the all-star break and is just 3-7 since the all-star break. That stretch has taken the Red Sox one game under .500 and to the bottom of the AL East. The only silver lining is the Red Sox are only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, so there is time for Boston to turn things around and make a playoff push.
Meanwhile, the Astros are running away with the AL West, sitting 12 games ahead of the second-place Mariners. In fact, Houston is just two games behind the Yankees for the best record in the American League. Despite a puzzling sweep at the hands of Oakland last week, the Astros are 8-4 since the all-star break and trending in the right direction.
The Astros will have Luis Garcia on the mound for Monday’s series opener against the Red Sox. The 25-year-old has been stellar in his 18 starts this year, going 8-6 with a 1.08 ERA. Of course, Garcia has leveled off a little, giving up four runs or more in two of his last four starts, so he’s been far from dominant lately.
The Houston offense has also been a little sluggish over the past week. Outside of an 11-run outburst against the Mariners on Friday, the Astros are only averaging 3.2 runs per game over their last five games. The good news is that Houston has MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez anchoring the lineup while Yuli Gurriel and Aledmys Diaz have also been red-hot over the last week.
Nate the Great
The Red Sox are hoping that Nathan Eovaldi can tame Houston’s lineup and lead them to a win on Monday. Eovaldi is 4-3 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts in 2022. Those numbers are a little bit inflated, as Eovaldi has posted an ERA of 11.08 in his last three starts after missing more than a month with a back issue.
Ironically, the Red Sox have scored at least four runs in six of their ten games since the all-star break despite going 3-7 during that stretch. The trio of Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, and Christian Vazquez is carrying Boston’s lineup right now. However, J.D. Martinez and many of Boston’s supporting cast are struggling while Trevor Story and Rafael Devers remain on the IL.
The Astros are far from a sure thing these days, as they aren’t quite clicking on all cylinders. However, it’s hard to put faith in the Red Sox with the way Eovaldi has performed lately and the look of their lineup these days. Don’t overthink this and bet on the Astros to win Monday’s series opener.
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