The Florida State Seminoles look to wrap up a surprising season with at least a share of the ACC title and the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament Saturday when they host the Boston College Eagles. The Seminoles hold the tiebreaker over Louisville, which would make them the top seed in the ACC tournament, which begins next week.
This meeting will be the one and only for these two teams this season barring some kind of strange occurrence in the ACC tournament, Boston College currently sits tied for 10th in the league with Virginia Tech at 7-12 on the season in league play.
The Eagles have dropped four games in a row coming down the stretch after a surprising start to the ACC season that saw them at 7-8 just three weeks ago. They are led by senior Derryck Thornton and freshman Jay Heath, both of whom are guards that average 13.1 points per game.
The Seminoles are also lead by their star-studded backcourt of Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest. Vassell is probably the most improved player in the ACC, while Forrest is a potential defensive player of the year award winner.
Potential lottery selection Patrick Williams has also come on strong as of late, averaging 11.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game over his last eight contests.
Florida State is a 16.5-point favorite at home, with the over/under set at 141.5.
The Eagles can still impact this season
Boston College may look like an easy W on paper, but they are a feisty bunch. The Eagles are 14-16 against the spread on the season and have won seven games straight up as a dog.
They are also dangerous on the road at 5-6 ATS in true road games. As stated above, they have fallen off a little bit in recent weeks, and it is reflected in their trends as they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.
Their defense, which was respectable much of the season, has been lax of late as well, resulting in the total hitting the over in five of their last seven games.
No one wins in Tallahassee except Florida State
The Seminoles don’t lose at home this season, literally. Florida State is 15-0 at the Donald L. Tucker Center this season with an average margin of victory of 16 points per game.
However, they are just 7-8 against the spread in those games but are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. In a somewhat shocking trend, the total has gone over in nine of the Seminoles’ last 13 games this season.
That is a ton of points
Boston College is not playing all that well, and Florida State is on the cusp of winning the league, but 16.5 points are a lot of points. The Seminoles have been covering lately, but they aren’t exactly playing great basketball having lost to Clemson and barely pulling out a win against Notre Dame earlier this week.
The problem here is that Boston College relies heavily on their two guards to do much of the scoring and Vassell and Forrest at plus defenders on and off the ball. Florida State is going to win this game, that goes without saying, but I think you have to take the Eagles to cover the big number. I also think this game is going to see some points, so take the over.
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