The final week of the NFL preseason gets underway on Thursday night with a rematch of Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. While on the road, the Packers are currently listed as one-point favorites in this game. Thursday’s contest also has an over/under of 36 points.
After faltering in the AFC Championship Game last season and seeing the AFC West get better during the offseason, the Chiefs know they can’t take anything for granted this season. The good news is they were impressive in a 24-14 win over the Commanders last week. Andy Reid has been less coy about playing his starters during the preseason, so the Chiefs should take the preseason finale seriously.
Of course, the Packers know a thing or two about playoff disappointments, which have defined the franchise in recent years. Nevertheless, they will enter the 2022 campaign as heavy favorites in the NFC North. They are also coming off a win in last week’s preseason game against the Saints despite losing their opener against the 49ers.
Feeling the Love?
Aaron Rodgers has been held out of the first two preseason games and will play little if at all in Kansas City. That has opened the door for Jordan Love to play significant snaps, although the results have been mixed. Love threw three interceptions in the loss to the 49ers and completed just 12 of his 24 passes in last week’s win over the Saints, so he’s not exactly lighting it up against the opposing team’s backups.
The good news is the Green Bay offense has had some success running the ball during the first two preseason games despite leaving Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on the bench. Both love and third-string quarterback Danny Etling have some mobility, which is helpful with Green Bay’s top skill players sitting. The Green Bay defense is also coming off a strong performance last week and could mix in a few more starters.
Dress Rehearsal
While the Packers are taking the safe route, Kansas City’s starters have seen plenty of the field during the preseason, including Patrick Mahomes. The former MVP has led three drives over the first two preseason games and thrown three touchdown passes. If Mahomes continues to increase the number of snaps he plays this week, he could help to give the Chiefs an early lead, as the KC offense has been humming with him under center.
The problem is that backups Shane Buechele and Dustin Crum haven’t had much success over the first two preseason games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are averaging a pitiful 2.7 yards per carry on the ground during the preseason, so none of the quarterbacks are getting much help from the ground game. On the bright side, a promising group of rookies and a couple of veterans among Kansas City’s backups are getting the job done on that side of the ball, giving up just 33 total points in two preseason games.
Root for the Home Team
Even in a preseason game, the Chiefs hold a lot of value as a slight home underdog. Kansas City’s lackluster rushing attack could be problematic in the second half, especially since that’s been a strength for the Packers the last two weeks. But if Mahomes plays multiple drives again, he’ll give the Chiefs enough of a leg up to win on Thursday night.
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