The Utah Utes and Washington Huskies meet early in the Pac-12 Tournament, hosted in wonderful Las Vegas with an 11:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Usually, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, but these games count, in more ways than the record books.
History suggests Washington will win this game by a few possessions. The Huskies (16-14) swept the season series with a four-point, double-overtime win at home and a six-point win at Utah (11-19). In both of those games, the Huskies covered the spread.
The line opened as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 141. It has since moved to Washington -3, though the over/under is unchanged as of this writing.
Huskies Need to Do the Little Things
In the six-point win, Washington was outrebounded 42-23 but held a 19-6 turnover advantage to even things out. It can’t be expected either of those are as wide of margins, so the Huskies must execute in other areas.
Terrell Brown Jr. has been a standout for the Huskies, leading the team to score at 21.7 points per game and assists at 4.2 per game. The Seattle native scored 30 in the overtime meeting between the two. Washington’s only other double-figure scorer is Emmitt Matthews Jr., who is scoring 11.7 points per game.
Daejon Davis and Cole Bajema scored in double figures to help carry the load in the first meeting. Bajema was 5-8 on threes. In the second meeting, it was Jamal Bay and Nate Roberts who hit double figures.
Washington was 190th in offense this year, scoring 70.6 per game. But they’ve shot it a 41.% clip (312th nationally) and 31% on 3s (311th). The Huskies allowed 72.6 points per game, 276th in the country. Though their defensive efficiency was slightly better, ranking 222nd in opponents’ field goal percentage and 185th in opposing 3-point percentage.
Utah Needs to Draw Fouls
The thing that the Utes do best is shoot free throws, converting 77.1% of attempts, which is the 19th-best mark in the country. Utah is 212nd in scoring (69.7 points per game) and 219th defensively, allowing 70.5 points per game.
The Utes’ defensive efficiency is also a strong point, forcing teams to 43.5% from the field (196th) and 32.5% on 3-pointers (131st). Forcing Washington into tough shots and making it a messy game in that regard is a way for the Utes to pull off the betting upset.
Utah is led by 7-foot center Braden Carlson, who is averaging a team-best 13.6 points and 1.6 blocks per game. His 6.0 rebounds per game are second to Marco Anthony, who grabs 7.2 per game. Carlson is the only double-figure scorer on the Utes.
Utes-Huskies Petting Prediction
Utah is 12-17-1 against the spread and 16-14 on over/unders. The Utes are 4-10 away from home, including 2-1 in neutral-court games. Washington is 17-13 against the spread and 16-13-1 on over/unders. Similarly, the Huskies are 5-8 away from home and 2-1 in neutral-court games.
Both of these teams are out of the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Pac-12 automatic qualifier. Washington was 11-9 in league play compared to Utah’s 4-16, and a margin like that should heavily swing in the Huskies’ favor. They also have the best player on either team in Brown. Washington -3.5 is the pick.
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