Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

At the season’s beginning, one may not have expected the Texas Christian Horned Frogs to be heading to the state’s capital with an undefeated record and College Football Playoff hopes. But TCU (9-0) looks to continue their best season (to date) in program history and beat the Texas Longhorns (6-3) at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

What may be surprising is Texas is favored by a touchdown with an over/under of 65 points. TCU is +225 on the moneyline while Texas is -265.

Horned Frogs look to playoff

The Sonny Dykes era is off to a great start in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have one of the most explosive offenses in college football. They rank third in scoring at 43.1 points per game and fourth in total offense at 508.7 yards per game. It is a balanced attack, too, ranking 14th in rushing (219.7 rushing yards per game) and 21st in passing (289 passing yards per game).

Max Duggan looks like a Heisman frontrunner with a 66% completion percentage, 2,407 yards passing, 24 touchdowns to two interceptions, 282 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. Featured tailback Kendre Miller has 1,009 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.

But defense is the biggest question mark. That unit allows 26.9 points per game (74th) and 396.2 yards of total offense (86th). They’ll face elite talent on the Texas offense.

Longhorns become the hunters

It’s not often the Longhorns look to play spoiler. With Quinn Ewers finally looking healthy, the Longhorns have a shot to play spoiler and deny TCU the playoff bid.

The Texas offense is 24th in scoring 36.1 points per game and 30th in gaining 447.1 yards per game. It’s a balanced attack gaining 192.4 yards rushing (36th) and 254.7 yards passing (49th). Ewers is only completing 57.8% of passes but has thrown for 1,336 yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions in six games. Running back Bijan Robinson is the bellcow with 1,129 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. Xavier Worthy is a big play threat with nine receiving touchdowns in a rather balanced pass distribution.

Defensively there is room for improvement. Texas allows 21.8 points per game, ranking 37th, but is 74th in total defense, allowing opponents to gain 381.7 yards per game. That includes 258.1 through the air, ranking 104th.

Horned Frogs/Longhorns Betting Prediction

History suggests TCU may keep their dream season alive. They are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings in Austin, and 6-2 against the spread in the last eight games, regardless of location. They’ve also won six of the last eight games straight up.

But Texas showed against Alabama they have the athletes in the trenches to compete with anybody. The tempo will be the key.
While 68% of public bets are on the Horned Frogs, oddsmakers have to know something, with Texas favored by a touchdown. We’ll take the Longhorns -7.

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