The Cinderella story continues as the Saint Peter’s Peacocks look to become the first 15-seed to reach a Final Four when they play the eighth-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels at 5:05 p.m. ET on Sunday in the East Regional final in Philadelphia.
Saint Peter’s, a small commuter school in Jersey City, New Jersey, has become America’s team by beating second-seeded Kentucky by six in overtime, topping Murray State by ten and then beating third-seeded Purdue, a top-10 ranked team all year, by three. In all matchups, the Peacocks (22-11) simply outplayed their opponents.
The Tar Heels (27-9) have been on a mission this tournament, beating Marquette by 32, holding a 25-point lead against No. 1 seed Baylor before winning in overtime, and then topping UCLA by seven.
The line opened North Carolina -8 with an over/under of 137. Those have moved a half-point in the direction of North Carolina -8.5 and 137.5 as of this writing.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Run Heels run
North Carolina’s starters are conditioned to play more than 30 minutes a game, so they should be able to withstand Saint Peter’s pressure and frequent substitutions.
The Tar Heels are one of the top offensive teams in the country, scoring 78.6 points per game (24th nationally). They also convert 37.4% of 3-pointers, which is 31st in the country, and 77.0% of free throw attempts (20th nationally).
Inside they have one of the best players in the country in Armando Bacot. The 6-foot-10 forward is averaging 15.0 points and 13.2 rebounds per game, which paces the 14th-best rebounding team in the country (36.9 per game).
Versatile forward Brady Manek leads the team in scoring at 19.6 points per game in five tournament games. Caleb Love is behind him at 15.6 points per game.
Love, RJ Davis, and Leaky Black will be tested by the Peacocks’ greatest strength.
Saint Peter’s Peacocks Betting Preview: Better guard play
One of the things that has separated Saint Peter’s is how its backcourt plays. Doug Edert, Darryl Banks III, and Matthew Lee have applied great ball pressure on their opposing guards, which has forced tough entry passes and created turnovers.
They have forced 37 turnovers in three NCAA Tournament games with 18 steals. That quickly leads to transition opportunities and easy points.
Edert has led the team at 13.5 points per game and is shooting 42.9% from 3-point range in six postseason games. Banks is at 12.5, and Lee is scoring 8.5.
On the season, Saint Peter’s has won games on the defensive end. The Peacocks are 24th in defensive scoring, allowing 62.4 points per game and holding teams to 39.1% shooting (18th nationally) and 30.0% on 3-pointers (24th nationally).
Betting Prediction
Saint Peter’s is 22-9-1 against the spread this season and 13-19 on over/unders. North Carolina is 19-16-1 against the spread and 21-14-1 on over/unders this season.
It’ll be a tough environment for the Tar Heels, with an arena full of those wanting the upset. Saint Peter’s is all that stands in the way of a Duke-North Carolina Final Four game in New Orleans, which would be the last in the rivalry’s history with Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski.
That should happen, but we’ll take the Peacocks to cover 8.5.
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