The Phoenix Suns look to head home with a convincing series lead as they visit the New Orleans Pelicans at 9:30 p.m. ET on Saturday with a 2-1 lead. However, they’ll have to do it without star guard Devin Booker, who is out for a few weeks with a hamstring injury.
But that’s exactly what the Suns did in Game 3 on Friday, pulling out a 114-111 win on the backs of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton, despite a 4-for-26 3-point performance as a team.
The line opened at Phoenix -3 with an over/under of 216, but it has since moved a half-point to Phoenix -2.5 with an over/under of 215.5 as of this writing.
Phoenix Suns need more possessions
If the first three games are any indication, the Phoenix Suns need to generate as many possessions for each team as possible. The percentages say they’re going to score at a high rate of efficiency and force teams into tougher shots. This season Phoenix was the top offensive team at 48.5% and ninth in 3-point percentage at 36.4%.
Defensively they forced teams to shoot 44.4% from the field, the third-best defensive rate, and 34% on 3-pointers, which was fifth.
Having big men to platoon in Ayton and Javale McGee and then switchable wings in Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Jae Crowder gives the Suns versatility on both ends of the court, and all forwards and guards space the floor.
Paul particularly has been great, averaging 25.0 points and 12.7 assists to 2.0 turnovers per game so far this series. Ayton as well, averaging a double-double of 19.7 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. Though the biggest help has been McGee off the bench, averaging 10.7 points in 13.4 minutes per game.
New Orleans Pelicans keep taking (and making) 3s
What stood out in the Pelicans’ Game 2 win was they converted 17-of-30 three-pointers for a 56.7% rate. That was the difference in bringing the series home to New Orleans, tied at one following the 125-114 win. C.J. McCollum was six for ten, and Brandon Ingram hit all three of his 3s in that contest.
That strategy has been the theme of the series for New Orleans, attempting a high rate of 3-pointers, averaging 28.3 attempts per contest in the series.
That’s a sound strategy with Paul making most of his shots driving or pulling up in the mid-range, plus Ayton and McGee working inside. Trading 2s for 3s is one way the Pelicans can pull off the upset.
It’s a bold strategy given they were the fourth-worst shooting team in the league, converting 33.2% of such attempts this season. But they’ve gotten a break and have kept games close in the series.
Ingram and McCollum have been exceptional, averaging 29.7 and 26.0 points per game, respectively, so far this series.
Phoenix/New Orleans Betting Prediction
As of this writing, 68% of the public bets are on the Suns against the spread, with 71% on the over.
Why wouldn’t they be? Phoenix was 33-9 away from home during the regular season and ran away with the league’s best regular-season record at 64-18. They were strong against the spread, too, going 46-39.
Phoenix is 6-2 against the spread over the last eight meetings, so some regression to the mean is possible. The over has also hit in the last seven meetings.
But the playoffs are a different beast, and taking Booker out of the lineup could be impactful. Still, the Suns have too much talent, so we’ll take them to cover -2.5.
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