Penn State is in rhythm, coming off a pair of wins, including an upset of Ohio State to advance to Friday’s quarterfinal against third-seeded Purdue with an estimated tip-off time of 9:00 p.m. ET in Indianapolis.
Penn State (14-16) will again try to play bid stealer by winning the tournament but will need to avenge a 74-67 loss to the Boilermakers suffered on Jan. 8.
Penn State did cover the 10-point spread. Both teams scored in double figures, with Purdue nailing one more 2-pointer, 3-pointer, and two free throws for ever-tight separation.
Purdue (25-6) is squarely on the two-seed line in the latest bracketology projections. By winning three games in Indianapolis and clinching the Big Ten automatic qualifier, the Boilermakers could move up to a one seed.
The line opened at Purdue -9 with an over/under of 138.5, where it sticks as of this writing.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: Play with pace
Purdue needs to get its swagger back and run as much as it can on Friday. The Boilermakers have the seventh-best scoring offense at 80.7 points per game.
They also have the third-most efficient offense, shooting 49.7% from the field and 39.7% on 3-pointers, also third. They are also 171st in scoring defense, allowing 68.8 points per game.
That’s to be expected with a team that runs as much as Purdue does, but the real kicker is they’re average when it comes to forcing opponents to miss shots. They do make up for it by having the best opposing rebounding rate of 25.5 boards per game.
Jaden Ivey has elevated his NBA Draft stock and is averaging 17.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. They also have a 7-foot-4 unicorn in Zach Edey, who pairs well in the frontcourt with Trevion Williams. Those three with Sasha Stefanovic are the four who lead the team in scoring.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Defense wins championships
Playing their third game in three days, the Nittany Lions are going to need to slow Purdue’s offense down. They have the 63rd best scoring defense, holding teams to 65.3 points per game, and are 77th in limiting teams to 41.4% from the field.
However, teams are converting 35.3% of 3-pointers against them, the 285th best mark. Conversely, their offense is 319th in scoring at 64.7 points per game.
First-year coach Micah Shrewsberry has a couple of key leaders in Jalen Pickett and John Harrar. Pickett is averaging 12.8 points and 4.3 assists per game, each team-highs.
Harrar is averaging 10.5 points and a team-best 10.3 rebounds per game. Both Seth Lundy (12.4 ppg) and Sam Sessions (11.4 ppg) also average double figures.
Betting Prediction
Penn State has some solid wins this season, but they’ve all come on their home floor. The Nittany Lions beat Indiana, Rutgers, Iowa, and Michigan state while playing Purdue and Wisconsin close as well. They are, however, 1-10 in true road games and 3-1 in neutral-court settings.
Purdue has been shaky of late, going 0-5-2 against the spread over its last seven. For the season, it is 13-16-2 against the spread and 17-14 on over/unders. The Boilermakers were 16-1 at home, 5-5 in true road games, and 4-0 on a neutral court.
Penn State has a short rotation and will have some tired legs, especially with a team that likes to run. Purdue has struggled down the stretch, but it should cover -9.
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