The MLB weekend comes to an end with a primetime Sunday night game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. The two teams have split the first two games of the series and also had a little bit of a scuffle on Friday night. Sunday’s game has even odds, with both teams holding a moneyline of -110 with the over/under set at 8.5 runs.
For the Mets, Saturday’s win in Philadelphia was able to snap a three-game losing streak. Despite holding onto first place in the NL East for most of April, the Mets sit a game under .500. Of course, that’s enough for a three-way tie atop the NL East with the Phillies and Braves.
With Saturday’s loss, the Phillies have failed to win back-to-back games since starting the season 4-0. They’ve been consistently inconsistent in that respect. But because the Mets and Braves have also underachieved during the first part of the season, the Phillies can claim a share of the NL East lead.
Zach Eflin will start for the Phillies on Sunday, hoping to continue a strong start to his 2021 season. Over his first five starts, Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA. While he gave up five runs in his last start, Eflin has pitched at least six innings in all five of his starts, which is good news for Philadelphia’s bullpen.
The other piece of good news is that the Mets have been dreadful offensively lately. They woke up briefly on Saturday with five runs but scored just two runs total in their previous three games. Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis were the club’s only two productive hitters in April, and both left Saturday’s game with an injury.
Eflin also has excellent career numbers against Nimmo and several other Mets. However, Michael Conforto could be an exception to that, as he has three home runs and two doubles in 26 career at-bats against Eflin. Conforto also hit the go-ahead homer on Saturday, as he looks to break out of his slump.
The Mets will ask David Peterson to deliver a quality performance in Sunday’s rubber match. The young lefty has had plenty of ups and downs this year, going 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA over his first four starts. He’s twice failed to go beyond four innings and typically has at least one inning in which he gets knocked around.
Of course, Peterson has had two starts this year against the Phillies, each going very differently. In his first start, he gave up six runs over four innings. But Peterson bounced back to strike out 10 Phillies over six innings while allowing just one run on three hits.
There’s a chance that Peterson lucks out with Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto both nursing minor injuries. Outside of those two, nobody in the Philadelphia lineup has been swinging a good bat lately outside of the occasional home run from Rhys Hoskins. In fact, the Phillies are averaging less than three runs per game over their last seven games.
Rather than bet on a winner in a virtual toss-up, bet on the under on 8.5 runs. The Mets still aren’t on track offensively, and the Phillies are likely to be missing Harper and Realmuto. Plus, Peterson was good in his last outing against the Phillies, so this game has pitcher’s duel written all over it.
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