Central Florida Knights at Florida Gators Gasparilla Bowl Betting Preview

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Thursday’s Gasparilla Bowl is one of the more intriguing matchups of the early bowl season, as the Florida Gators are set to take on the UCF Knights at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

The Sunshine State foes have only met twice before, most recently in 2006, which was a 42-0 win for the Gators. However, Florida is a modest seven-point favorite in this game, with the over/under set at 55.5 points.

This season was so bad for the Gators that it got head coach Dan Mullen fired. But even without Mullen coaching the season finale, Florida knocked off rival Florida State just to become bowl eligible. Now the Gators need to win their bowl game to avoid their second losing season in five years.

Likewise, this was not a typical season for UCF, which is just a few years removed from a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2018. With Gus Malzahn taking over the program, the Knights were a respectable 8-4 during the season. However, they were a distant third in the AAC and lacked any marquee wins outside of victories over Boise State and Memphis.

Different Knights

With Malzahn, the UCF offense is a lot more focused on running the ball compared to the pass-heavy offense of past seasons. Of course, it didn’t help that quarterback Dillon Gabriel suffered a season-ending injury early in the season and is now on his way to UCLA. However, freshman quarterback Mikey Keane gave a strong account of himself when he was pressed into action, limiting his mistakes while trying to serve as a competent game manager.

Ultimately, the Knights ended up being led more by their defense than the offense, which was a little bit of a surprise. The UCF defense wasn’t necessarily the most experienced defense in the country, but the Knights started to come on strong late in the season. They allowed 17 points or less in six of their last eight games, although they also allowed 55 points or more twice during that stretch against Cincinnati and SMU.

Parting Gift

Amidst reports that he’s entering the transfer portal, Emory Jones will be Florida’s quarterback in the Gasparilla Bowl, with backup Anthony Richardson missing the game due to injury. Jones was Florida’s leading rusher this year and is a serious threat with his legs alongside Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce. However, Jones also had 13 interceptions this season compared to 19 touchdown passes, so the Florida passing game does have its shortcomings.

Meanwhile, the Florida defense endured a world of problems late in the year. While the Gators got their act together against Missouri and Florida State in the final two games, they allowed an average of 43.8 points per game in their previous four games. In those four games, the Gators struggled to stop the run, which could be a problem against the Knights, especially if the Florida defense isn’t motivated to play in a low-profile bowl game.

Chomp, Chomp

While there are surely concerns about Florida, the Gators are undoubtedly the more talented team in this matchup. While the Knights have their strengths, they struggled defensively against high-level teams and still have an unproven quarterback. Those shortcomings should be enough for the Gators to win and cover the spread in the Gasparilla Bowl.

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