Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns Betting Pick

The Baylor Bears will bring their 10-0 Big 12 record and No. 1 ranking to Austin, Texas, Monday night to take on the Texas Longhorns. The Bears are 21-1 overall on the season and have not dropped a game since Nov. 8 against Washington.

Texas currently sits at 14-9 overall and just 4-6 in league play. The Longhorns have lost five of their last seven games. Texas head coach Shaka Smart is just 1-6 against Baylor in his time in Austin, with the one win coming almost exactly a year ago.

Baylor is led by a well-balanced roster composed of solid guards in Jared Butler (15.3 points, three assists) and MaCio Teague (14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds) and a fantastic big man in Freddie Gillespie (10.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.3 blocks). Devion Mitchell and Mark Vital round Scott Drew’s talented starting five.

The Longhorns are led by junior point guard Matt Coleman (12.9 points, 4.0 assists) and big man Jericho Sims (9.7 points, 7.9 rebounds). Sims has really come along nicely in the last few weeks, averaging 11.3 points and over seven rebounds per game while shooting over 64 percent from the field in his last seven contests.

Baylor is favored by six points on the road, with the over/under set at 128.

Can Bears Take Bull By The Horns?

There is little that this Baylor team doesn’t do well from a betting standpoint. The Bears are 6-0 straight up on the road this season. Scott Drew’s team is also an impressive 5-1 against the spread in true road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.

In their last 13 games against the Longhorns, the Bears are 9-4 ATS. As usual under Coach Drew, Baylor prides itself on defense. The total has gone under in 12 of the Bears’ 22 games this season, but the total has gone over in seven of Baylor’s last nine games in Austin.

Must-Win Game

The question under Smart is always: “Is Texas back?” So far, the answer has been no. The Longhorns are 9-4 straight up at home this season, but just 3-6 straight up as the underdog. Overall, Texas is just 9-14 against the spread and a disappointing 4-9 ATS at home.

The total has gone under in 14 of the Longhorns’ 23 games this season, including four of their last five. The fact that Gerald Liddell (back) and Jase Febres (knee) are questionable does not provide much optimism either.

Baylor Rolls

Texas has the talent, but it has a tendency to look disjointed at times as it has been difficult for them to put complete games together this season. Meanwhile, the Bears are arguably the best team in the nation, led by a great coach with a roster full of players who just consistently get it done.

I don’t think the Bears go undefeated in league play, but I also don’t think this Texas team is the team that gets it done. Baylor wins and covers, and give me the over.

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