The West Region of the NCAA Tournament went straight chalk to get the four teams it contributed to the Sweet Sixteen. The first meeting at 7:09 p.m. ET in San Francisco features the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed in Gonzaga against fourth-seeded Arkansas.
The Bulldogs (28-3) opened with a 22-point win over Georgia State, and an 82-78 win over Memphis followed. The Tigers were solid on both ends, but a strong second-half performance by Drew Timme on his way to a game-high 26 points helped Gonzaga advance. Now they seek their fifth Elite Eight over the last seven tournaments.
Arkansas (27-8) is 17-3 over its last 20 games, including a 75-71 win over Vermont and 53-48 win over New Mexico State to reach the program’s 13th Sweet Sixteen. A win over Gonzaga would make back-to-back Elite Eight appearances and the 11th in program history.
The line opened at Gonzaga -8.5 with an over/under of 154. It has since moved to Gonzaga -9 with an over/under of 154.5 as of this writing.
Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Preview: Run the race
Playing up-tempo matches both these teams’ styles, and for Gonzaga, that makes a favorable matchup. The Zags have the highest-scoring offense in the country at 88.3 points per game and are second in efficiency at 52.4% from the field. They are 22nd in 3-point percentage at 37.8%.
Defensively they are third in forcing teams to shoot 37.6% from the field and 54th in points allowed at 65.0 per game. Those are remarkable given their pace but also eludes to a talent gap in their league.
Likely NBA lottery pick Chet Holmgren is averaging 14.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per game through the regular season. In four postseason games, Timme is averaging 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Andrew Nembhard is scoring 17.0 points per game to go with 8.0 assists per contest.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: Balanced attack
Arkansas likes to get out and run, as is customary under Eric Mussleman-coached teams. JD Notae led the charge during the regular season at 18.9 points per game, but he’s dropped to 14.8 per game in four postseason games. But others have stepped up, namely Stanley Umude and Au’Diese Toney. They’re both three points higher than their season average.
The Razorbacks are the 40th scoring offense in the country at 77.3 points per game and use rebounding — 35.3 per game, which is 37th nationally — and turnovers to run in transition. It makes up for being a poor 3-point shooting team, converting 31.1% of attempts (303rd nationally).
But defensively, they force teams to shoot 40.9% from the field, which is 47th in the country. They give up a respectable 68.2 points per game (150th nationally) due to the up-tempo style.
Betting Prediction
Gonzaga is 1-6-2 against the spread over its last nine-game but only has one loss straight up during that stretch, a 67-57 loss at Saint Mary’s it later avenged in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship.
This season, Gonzaga is 14-14-3 against the spread and 14-17 on over/unders. Arkansas is 20-14-1 against the spread, including 2-4-1 over the last seven games, and 21-14 on over/unders this season.
Two like-minded teams in terms of style and pace, Memphis gave Arkansas part of a blueprint to do well. But part of the Razorbacks’ makeup doesn’t include an NBA-bound center to matchup with Holmgren or Timme. Advantage goes to Gonzaga to win the game and cover the 9-point spread.
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