NFL Week 17 – Best Bets Against the Spread

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If you’ve been following my picks the past few weeks I’ve been on ABSOLUTE FIRE when its come to my NFL picks.  If you’ve been following the past 5 weeks I’ve been a whopping 13-2 when its come to my recommended picks against the spread.  So don’t get shut out and check out my Week 17 NFL wagers below!

– Joe

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)  Total: 44

It is is unbelievable that the Steelers have a chance to make the postseason this Sunday with how their season has gone, but that is the reality. Still, Pittsburgh needs a lot of help to advance, even if they do beat the Browns this Sunday at Heinz Field.

The Steelers got themselves to 7-8 on the season last week in a high scoring victory against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Defense is no longer their calling card, but instead Pittsburgh’s offensive attack has led their surge back into contention in recent weeks.

Rookie running back Le’veon Bell went over 100 yards rushing for the first time in his career in the win and the Steelers are scoring close to 30 points on average over their past five contests.

On the other side, the Browns have done little else than get on the team bus and show up to the stadium in the second half of the season, despite starting the year at 3-2. They raced out to an early lead last week against the Jets, but were outscored heavily in the second half and ultimate lost 24-13 to drop them to 4-11.

Not only do the Steelers dominate this series year after year, but the Browns are beaten up and their once vaunted defense has been in shambles in recent weeks. Top cornerback Joe Haden is unlikely to play in Sunday’s game after missing practice Friday, and Jordan Cameron has resume practicing but has not been cleared by doctors. It is likely both will error on the side of caution and sit out, especially in a meaningless game on the NFL’s final weekend.

Even if they do suit up, Pittsburgh’s offense has been scoring on everyone as of late and I have no doubt Big Ben will move the ball downfield with ease. The Steelers have also relied on rookie Bell heavily in the run game and short passing game. The Browns have struggled against pass catching backs and gave up over 200 yards on the ground to the New York Jets last week.

I like Pittsburgh to win in a rout as they fight for the final AFC Wild-Card spot.

Pick: Steelers -7

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3) Total: 53.5

In one of the most highly anticipated games this weekend, Aaron Rodgers returns to the starting lineup for the Packers as Green Bay heads to Soldier Field in a battle for the NFC North crown. It is as simple as that for both of these teams, beat their opponent and get into the postseason. Lose, and go home for a long offseason.

Aaron Rodgers has finally been cleared by team doctors after practicing for several weeks and will return this Sunday after missing Green Bay’s previous seven games. As I mentioned above, the Packers lost to Pittsburgh at home in a shootout with backup Matt Flynn at the helm. Scoring points was not an issue for Green Bay against the Steelers, but stopping them was a problem for the Packers’ already banged up defense.

On the injury front, they will be without linebacker Clay Matthews, and both Nick Perry and Mike Neal are both banged up. On the offensive side, Eddie Lacy is questionable as well, but is expected to suit up, but will not be at 100 percent.

The Bears did not inspire confidence after a blowout loss against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, losing 54-11 in a pathetic performance on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Jay Cutler struggled for most of the evening and was eventually benched late in the game for backup Josh McCown after he threw a late touchdown to Brandon Marshall. However, head coach Mark Trestman has announced Cutler as his starter this week.

As bad as the Bears defense has been, the Packers unit has been just about as inept. With even more injuries to their defense, their pass rush will be almost non-existent giving Cutler plenty of time to throw. Chicago’s offense is full of talent at nearly every skill position and should have a field day against a pitiful Green Bay defense.

Rodgers should put up decent numbers as well, but I have a feeling the Packers offense may stumble a bit. Yes, he is without a doubt one of the elite QBs in the league, but any quarterback that misses game action for nearly a half-season is going to be a little rusty.

I think Chicago takes this one in front of their home crowd and punches their ticket to the postseason.

Pick: Bears +3(-115)

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals +1 Total: 42

With a playoff spot on the line for Arizona and a chance to move up in seeding for the 49ers, this game has plenty of ramifications this Sunday.

San Francisco clinched a playoff spot in a thrilling Monday Night win against Atlanta. The game was sealed when linebacker Navarro Bowman ran back a 90-yard interception thrown by Matt Ryan, giving the Niners a 34-24 victory. San Francisco is just one game better than Arizona at 11-4.

It would be tough luck for the Cardinals if they missed the playoffs with an 11-5 record, something that may happen unless they get some help. They would be the first team to miss the postseason since the Patriots finished with an 11-5 record and missed their chance to compete for a Super Bowl back in 2008.

The Cardinals are fighting for their season in this game, after winning another must-win last week at Seattle, 17-10. The win broke the Seahawks’ nearly two year streak of undefeated home wins and was a landmark win for them this season.

Arizona is even better at home, and the 49ers defense is clearly a different unit than they were last season. Atlanta moved the ball up and down the field with ease on Monday night, and Carson Palmer should have no problems doing the same.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s inconsistency this year is reasoning enough alone to bet on Cardinals. Hit or miss all-year, he has been prone to plenty of dry spells. It is no coincidence that his recent run of strong play has coincided with the softer part of San Francisco’s schedule.

Arizona has given up more than 20 points just twice at home this season. I think their strong unit clamps down on the Niners’ offense, and the Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald connection has some success against SF’s secondary.

Pick: Cardinals +1 (-115) 

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