Two of the hotter teams in the Big Ten still stand ahead of Sunday’s 3:30 p.m. ET championship game. Iowa has been scorching hot, and Purdue, which struggled down the stretch, has righted whatever wrongs it faced.
Purdue swept the season series with Iowa by scores of 77-70 on the road and 83-73 at home. As Purdue coach Matt Painter noted, the first matchup did not have Iowa star Keegan Murray, and in the second meeting, Murray was in foul trouble. Murray is coming off a 32-point game against Indiana after shooting 11 for 17 from the field and 8 of 10 on 3-pointers.
The Hawkeyes (25-9) have been an offensive juggernaut in Indianapolis, scoring 112 points in the opener and 276 points in their three wins. They’ve hit 40 3-pointers in those four games.
Receiving the double-bye could be of benefit to Purdue (27-6), which has narrow wins over Penn State and Michigan State to advance to the title. Those close games should bode well, with another one expected on Sunday.
The line opened at Purdue -1 with an over/under of 148. Those have since moved to Purdue -2.5 with an over/under of 149.5 as of this writing.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: Control the tempo
Purdue has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They are seventh in scoring with 80.7 points per game. But it’s their efficiency that is key, ranking third in both field goal percentage (49.7%) and 3-point percentage (39.7%).
Securing offensive rebounds and limiting turnovers are keys to success for the Boilermakers, according to Painter. The ability to save possessions or get an extra shot give their efficient offense another opportunity.
Purdue is led by likely lottery pick Jaden Ivey, who is averaging 17.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. Three others are in double figures, including the forward tandem of 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and Trevion Williams.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Play through Keegan Murray
Although not as efficient as Purdue, the Hawkeyes like to run and get in transition. They have the fifth-highest scoring offense in the country at 83.3 points per game. They are top-80 in 3-point and field goal percentage as well.
Murray will be the difference, though. The 6-8 forward averaged 23.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this season and has stepped it up in the tournament with averages of 28.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game while shooting better than 60 percent from the field and 3-point line.
Iowa may have to have an efficient night from the 3-point line if it wants to beat Purdue and avenge the two regular-season losses.
Betting Prediction
Iowa is 21-13 against the spread and 22-11-1 on over/unders this season. It is 4-0 in neutral court games. Purdue is 13-18-2 against the spread and 18-15 on over/unders with a 6-0 neutral-court record.
But the Boilermakers have frustrated bettors of late. They are 0-7-2 over their last nine against the spread despite a 6-3 record in that same stretch.
Still, Purdue is the most complete team. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo called them Noah’s Ark because they have two of everything. With fresher legs and one less game played, Purdue should win and cover -2.5.
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