Lakers vs. Heat SU Winner 2/10/2013
In what will be the biggest NBA game of the weekend, the Miami Heat 32-14 (22-24 ATS) host the LA Lakers 23-26 (20-29 ATS). The game is on Sunday at 3:30pm ET and will be played at the American Airlines Arena.
This is the 2nd meeting between these two rivals this season. In the 1st game last month, the Lakers lost 99-90 at home in a close match-up that was decided in the 3rd quarter. Lebron James put up 39 points on 17-25 shooting from the field in that game. Playing in Miami against a Lakers team in disarray, the Heat are looking for a more convincing win this time around.
Why the Miami Heat Will Win?
Miami leads the Eastern Conference right now and have been next to unstoppable at the AA Arena. The Heat are 20-3 at home this season, with their only losses coming against the Knicks (112-92), Warriors (97-95) and Bulls (96-89).
The Heat are averaging 102.5 PPG, 47.1 RPG and 22.3 APG on offense this year. James is averaging 38.7 MPG to lead the team, plus he’s also the leader in points scored (26.8 PPG), rebounds (8.2 RPG), assists (7 APG) and steals (1.63 SPG).
With the way James is playing right now the Heat are tough to bet against. For the Heat to win this Sunday they need to feed the basketball into the paint where they average 42.7 PPG, and the where the Lakers struggle defensively.
The Lakers allow 44.5 PPG in the paint, which you wouldn’t expect with the big men the Lakers have. James and Wade need to crash the paint early and often to build up a lead, and with the way the Lakers are struggling it shouldn’t be a problem.
How Can the Los Angeles Lakers Pull Off an Upset?
The only way the Lakers will keep this game close is if they shut down James and Wade (not likely). In the 1st meeting between these teams, these two guys combined for 66 points, 11 rebounds, 13 assists, 5 steals and 2 blocks. The rest of the team were held quiet most of the game.
Stopping the rest of the Heat team is important, but if you allow the two big superstars to put up that type of production you’re not going to come out on top. Steve Nash also needs to step up and have a big game.
Nash is only averaging 11.9 PPG and 7.8 APG this season for the Lakers. Nash will be matched up against Chalmers/Cole and he should have a considerable advantage at the PG position. Nash needs to move the basketball around and tire out the Heat.
Kobe Bryant was held to 22 points on just 8/25 shooting from the field in the 1st game between these rivals. He’ll have to shoot a lot better than that for his team to have a chance at winning in the 4th quarter.
Lakers vs. Heat Moneyline Prediction
• Bet on the Miami Heat to Win by 8 at the Bovada Sportsbook
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The Lakers are 3-0 in the month of February, but those wins were against the Timberwolves, Pistons and Nets. I expect them to keep it close like they did in the 1st meeting, until the 2nd half when the talent on the Heat will turn up the pressure.
In the last 5 games James is leading the NBA with 29 PPG, which is above his season average by 2.2 pts. James is playing great right now and he’ll be ready to play the Lakers this Sunday. Look for James to score 30+ and the Heat to win in the range of 102-94 at home.
At the time I’m writing this article, the odds for this Lakers vs. Heat game aren’t posted yet. I like the Heat by 8, so my pick on the spread would be based on that number.
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