NFL Week 10 – Best Bets Against the Spread

Odds provided by Bovada.lvFootballSportsBetting

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers -1 Pick: Packers -1

Both of these NFC foes will be using their backup quarterbacks as they head into a critical game at Lambeau Field. The Packers were riding a four game win streak before Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone against the Bears on Monday Night. The Eagles will go with Nick Foles for at least another week with Michael Vick ailing, but with Foles coming off a legendary performance in Oakland, there may be a full-blown quarterback controversy in Philadelphia.

At 4-5, the Eagles are just one game back of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East after a big win against Oakland last Sunday. Nick Foles threw for a record tying seven touchdowns in the 49-20 victory at Oakland. Previously, the Eagles had just managed just 10 points in back-to-back losses.

Vick continues to be sidelined, though he did some limited work on Wednesday. Guard Jason Peters has practiced after being pulled from Sunday’s game. He should be a go for Sunday’s game.

The Packers season was dealt a vicious blow on Sunday as they lost franchise quarterback and All-Pro, Aaron Rodgers for at least three weeks with a broken collarbone. At a 5-3 record, Green Bay is tied for the first place in the NFC North with both the Bears and Lions who sport an identical record.

Journeyman quarterback Seneca Wallace will fill in for Rodgers after he broke the bone while taking a sack in the first quarter. After Rodgers left the game, Wallace was 11 for 19 for a mere 114 yards, four sacks, an interception and no touchdowns. The Pack went on to lose the game a 27-20 home loss to the Chicago Bears.

Other unfortunate news for the passing game was Jermichael Finley’s move to the injured reserve. The Packers were hoping he could heal up for a late season run, but his bruised spinal cord injury is too serious. Clay Matthews may play this week depending on how practicing goes with his protective glove after thumb surgery.

This game actually opened at Packers -9.5 before the extent of Rodgers injury was known. It moved quickly to -1 after the news broke Tuesday regarding his injury. Lots of public money has also come in on Philadelphia, and I’m not sure it is justified.

The Eagles are nothing exceptional. Green Bay is at home, and the Eagles defense has been terrible this year. Wallace is the key question mark in this game, and though he looked poor in relief of Rodgers last week, he has another week of practice and first team reps under his belt.. I think he will come out looking a lot better in his first start of the season and has an excellent cast of skill players to help. Running back Eddie Lacy, who has been a massive surprise this year, should be able to take some of the load off him and run through the Eagles front at will.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants -7 Pick: Raiders +7

The Raiders were not given a chance by most experts to win more than a few games this year and yet they sit just over the halfway mark with a 3-5 record. The Giants, who most expected to contend for a playoff spot and perhaps a division championship, also come into this game struggling with just two wins on the year.

Oakland was picked apart last Sunday by the Philadelphia Eagles, a game that will go down in NFL lore. Quarterback Nick Foles threw seven touchdowns and while throwing for 406 as he obliterated the Eagles secondary by a final score of 49-20.

Raiders Quarterback Terrelle Pryor actually threw for a career high 288 yards in the game but failed to throw a touchdown pass and left late in the fourth quarter with a high ankle sprain. However, he is expected to play this week. Running back Darren McFadden aggravated a hamstring injury in the second quarter, left the game and is questionable to play this week.

The Giants are 2-6 after the team dropped their first six games of the year. Coming out of the bye week, New York won their last two games before the break, a 23-7 win over Minnesota and 15-7 over Philly. Though they have finally won two games, there are still many issues for the Giants.

Eli Manning has yet to get back in stride and boasts a poor 10:15 touchdown to interception ratio heading into Week 10. The defense has been among the worst in the league in points allowed and total defense. They have also had plenty of injury concerns.

Most notably, the revolving door at the running back position. Andre Brown will return from the disabled list this week and will help spell Peyton Hillis and Brandon Jacobs in the Giants backfield.

While the Raiders looked as terrible as any NFL team can be on defense last week, there is no way the Giants are deserving of -7 favorite status, even at home. New York has failed to move the ball against a number of poor defenses this year, and this Raiders squad will be eager to prove last week was a fluke.

Offensively, Oakland should be able to move the ball against a defense that been terrible for essentially the entire first half of the season. I know their past two games they have played well, but it is obvious this Eagles unit is full of holes. This one should be close no matter the pace of the game, and I can see a Raiders upset possibly brewing.

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 Pick: Dolphins -3(-105)

Unless you have been living under a rock, the Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin saga has been across the news for several days now. Hopefully, the talk dies down by Monday Night as I am sure fans and the NFL offices alike are sick of hearing about this incident of player harassment. Regardless, of the eventual outcome, it looks as if both players involved will miss Monday Night’s game against the Buccaneers.

The Fins started the season 3-0 before dropping their next four games to put them at the 4-4 mark on the year. Miami got a crucial win last Thursday Night in an overtime game against the Bengals. Cameron Wake won the game with a sack as he took down Bengals QB Andy Dalton with a safety, ending the game 22-20.

The Dolphins played balanced football all-around. Ryan Tannehill did not throw an interception in the loss, and the defense forced four Bengals turnovers. Running back Lamar Miller rushed for his first hundred yard game of his career.

Tampa Bay, one of the two remaining winless teams in the league was at least close to their first victory on Sunday. The Buccaneers led 21-0 in the second quarter, but failed to score again after kicking a field goal to make the game 24-7. Seattle scored the last 17 points in regulation, forcing it into overtime and winning by a field goal 27-24.

There were few bright spots, like rookie quarterback Mike Glennon’s effectiveness in the loss, throwing for 168 and no interceptions. Mike James, filling in for injured back Doug Martin ran for a career-high 158 on 28 carries.

The Bucs tough game against Seattle was admirable, but it is hard to endure so much and then once again be saddled with yet another emotional loss. There was certainly no quit or lack of effort with Tampa Bay last week. Something many have suggested was happening for weeks under Schiano’s watch. Still, this team has been beaten down for weeks and is dealing with multiple injuries. Not only that, Miami’s matchups are excellent.

They excel against the run which should limit Mike James effectiveness and force Glennon to throw with an already depleted receiving corps. Miami’s pass rush is also one of the best in the league, which is cause for concern for any quarterback let alone a rookie.

All the controversy has seemingly rallied this team throughout the week, and I think they are more focused than ever on getting a win come Monday Night Football. On top of that, they are clearly the better team with the better roster. I think Miami wins this game easily.

 

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